Prediction of Madison Keys [5th] vs Aryna Sabalenka [1st] Head-to-Head At The 1970
By Wojtek Kolan
Form
W W W W W L W L W L
Form
W W W L W W W W W WHead-2-Head: Keys 2 - 5 Sabalenka
They have played 17 sets in total, with Keys winning 5 and Sabalenka winning 12. The last match between Keys and Sabalenka was at the BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells, 15-03-2025, Semifinals, Hard with Aryna Sabalenka getting the victory 6-0 6-1.
| Players | Head-To-Head Match Wins |
|---|---|
| Madison Keys | 2 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 5 |
| Keys | Stats | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| 83% (20-4) | YTD Win/Loss | 85% (23-4) |
| 2 | Head-to-Head | 5 |
| 5 | Ranking | 1 |
| 5 | Highest Rank | 1 |
| 30 | Age | 26 |
| R | Plays | R |
| 14 | Titles | 25 |
| 64% (404-223) | Career Total W/L | 70% (447-193) |
| $19,946,732 | Career Prize Money | $28,930,373 |
| 2 | YTD Titles | 2 |
| 1 | Hard H2H | 4 |
| 0 | Clay H2H | 0 |
| 0 | Indoor H2H | 0 |
| 1 | Grass H2H | 1 |
Recent Performance Stats (Last 6 Months)
| Winning Player | Losing Player | Score | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-0 6-1 |
Stats 
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Madison Keys
70%
(
28 of
40)
1st Serve %
75%
(
30 of
40)
0
Aces
2
1
Double Faults
2
71%
(
20 of
28)
1st Serve Won
40%
(
12 of
30)
75%
(
9 of
12)
2nd Serve Won
40%
(
4 of
10)
83%
(
5 of
6)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
1)
28%
(
11 of
40)
Rtn Points Won
60%
(
24 of
40)
53
Total Points Won
27
|
||||
| 6-3 2-6 7-5 |
Stats
Madison Keys
Player
Aryna Sabalenka
67%
(
58 of
87)
1st Serve %
70%
(
67 of
96)
6
Aces
3
0
Double Faults
5
69%
(
40 of
58)
1st Serve Won
60%
(
40 of
67)
48%
(
14 of
29)
2nd Serve Won
62%
(
18 of
29)
44%
(
4 of
9)
Break Points Won
38%
(
3 of
8)
38%
(
33 of
87)
Rtn Points Won
40%
(
38 of
96)
92
Total Points Won
91
|
||||
| 6-4 6-3 |
Stats
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Madison Keys
72%
(
31 of
43)
1st Serve %
73%
(
43 of
59)
1
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
6
84%
(
26 of
31)
1st Serve Won
56%
(
24 of
43)
33%
(
4 of
12)
2nd Serve Won
38%
(
6 of
16)
71%
(
5 of
7)
Break Points Won
100%
(
2 of
2)
30%
(
13 of
43)
Rtn Points Won
49%
(
29 of
59)
59
Total Points Won
43
|
||||
| 0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5) |
Stats
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Madison Keys
65%
(
64 of
98)
1st Serve %
69%
(
76 of
110)
12
Aces
5
4
Double Faults
3
64%
(
41 of
64)
1st Serve Won
62%
(
47 of
76)
56%
(
19 of
34)
2nd Serve Won
47%
(
16 of
34)
30%
(
3 of
10)
Break Points Won
55%
(
6 of
11)
39%
(
38 of
98)
Rtn Points Won
43%
(
47 of
110)
107
Total Points Won
101
|
||||
| 6-2 6-4 |
Stats
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Madison Keys
57%
(
36 of
63)
1st Serve %
72%
(
49 of
68)
2
Aces
5
2
Double Faults
2
75%
(
27 of
36)
1st Serve Won
57%
(
28 of
49)
52%
(
14 of
27)
2nd Serve Won
37%
(
7 of
19)
44%
(
4 of
9)
Break Points Won
25%
(
1 of
4)
35%
(
22 of
63)
Rtn Points Won
49%
(
33 of
68)
74
Total Points Won
57
|
||||
| 6-4 1-6 7-5 |
Stats
Madison Keys
Player
Aryna Sabalenka
68%
(
53 of
78)
1st Serve %
58%
(
60 of
104)
8
Aces
5
2
Double Faults
7
72%
(
38 of
53)
1st Serve Won
68%
(
41 of
60)
44%
(
11 of
25)
2nd Serve Won
48%
(
21 of
44)
29%
(
4 of
14)
Break Points Won
67%
(
4 of
6)
37%
(
29 of
78)
Rtn Points Won
40%
(
42 of
104)
91
Total Points Won
91
|
||||
| 6-3 6-4 |
Stats
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Madison Keys
61%
(
48 of
79)
1st Serve %
69%
(
38 of
55)
6
Aces
8
4
Double Faults
1
79%
(
38 of
48)
1st Serve Won
76%
(
29 of
38)
45%
(
14 of
31)
2nd Serve Won
29%
(
5 of
17)
67%
(
2 of
3)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
10)
34%
(
27 of
79)
Rtn Points Won
38%
(
21 of
55)
73
Total Points Won
61
|
||||
| Stats | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2 | H2H Matches | 5 |
| 5 | Sets Won | 12 |
| 68 | Games Won | 91 |
| 35 | Aces (Total) | 29 |
| 16 | Total Double Faults | 24 |
| 1:35:44 | Average Match Time | 1:35:44 |
| 70% (347/497) | 1st Serve % | 64% (334/523) |
| 63% (218/347) | 1st Serve Win % | 70% (233/334) |
| 42% (63/150) | 2nd Serve Win % | 52% (99/189) |
| 33% (17/51) | Break Points Won % (Total) | 53% (26/49) |
| 37% (191/523) | Return Points Win % | 43% (216/497) |
| 29% (2/7) | Best of 3 Sets Win % | 71% (5/7) |
| 0% (0/0) | Best of 5 Sets Win % | 0% (0/0) |
| 0% (0/2) | Tiebreaks Win % (Total) | 100% (2/2) |
| 67% (2/3) | Deciding Set Win % | 33% (1/3) |
| 67% (3/2) | 1st Set Won, Won Match | 100% (4/4) |
| 33% (3/1) | 1st Set Won, Lost Match | 0% (4/0) |
| 0% (4/0) | 1st Set Lost, Won Match | 33% (3/1) |
Currently displayed stats includes matches of all levels. To exclude lower level events (as per ATP / WTA official stats) toggle button in page footer.
Madison Keys vs Aryna Sabalenka Important H2H Prediction Stats:
Head-to-head: Keys 2 - 5 Sabalenka
- Second serve performance recent form: In recent form (last 6 months), Keys has won 42.9% of points on their second serve, while Sabalenka has won 40.21%. There is a high correlation between this stat and match prediction accuracy.
- Return game stats recent form: Return stats show Keys, in recent form, has won 48.54% of their opponent's second serve points, while Sabalenka has won 49.11%. The same stats for first serve returns are 30.78% and 28.87% respectively and this has a high correlation to pick who is favored in this H2H matchup.
- Under pressure analysis: Keys has saved 51.93% of breakpoints in recent form, whereas Sabalenka has saved 50.88% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
- Performance overview: Over the last year Keys has won 75.93% of matches played (W/L 41/ 13), with Sabalenka winning 82.28% (W/L 65/ 14) that gives us an overall head-to head prediction overview.
- Best surface: Keys has their best career surface win % on Grass, winning 72% (W/L 50/ 19), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 53% (W/L 17/ 15). Sabalenka has their best career surface win % on Hard, winning 74% (W/L 284/ 102), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 63% (W/L 41/ 24).
- Player level: In the last year, Keys has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 66.67% of matches (W/L 14/ 7), where as Sabalenka has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 81.25% of matches (W/L 39/ 9). When comparing stats between players to predict the favorite, it is of course all relative to the event level they have been playing at.
- Direct H2H matches: They have played 7 times before with Keys winning 2 times and Sabalenka being victorious 5 times. They have played 17 sets in total, with Keys winning 5 and Sabalenka winning 12. The last match between Keys and Sabalenka was at the BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells, 15-03-2025, Semifinals, Hard with Aryna Sabalenka getting the victory 6-0 6-1.
- Head to head match duration: In past head to head matches, the average match time between these players has been 1:35:44.
- Deciding set H2H prediction: Keys and Sabalenka have played a deciding set 3 times, with Keys winning 2 times and Sabalenka 1 times. Very useful for predicting the outcome if this match goes the distance.
- Head-to-Head extreme pressure situations: They have played 2 tiebreaks against each other with Keys winning 0, and Sabalenka 2.
- Opponent quality stats: Over the last 12 months, Keys has played against opponents with an average rank of 38.15 while Sabalenka has played against players with an average rank of 34.84.
- Deciding set performance vs all players: If you are interested in live predictions and betting, if this match goes into a deciding set, Keys has won 87% of deciding sets over the last 12 months, while Sabalenka has won 59% in all matches played on tour.
- Current event H2H stats: Past player performance is very useful in predicting tennis matches, but once an event is under way we should also look at current event stats for in form player indication, so check the section below (if they have played a match in the current event). Some players also perform better at certain events and this should be taken into account when picking the outcome.
- Break point conversion: In recent form, Keys has converted 36.99% of breakpoint opportunities, and Sabalenka has converted 37.65% of their chances to break their opponents serve. A telling stat for in-game live betting tips when either player has a breakpoint opportunity.
- If you are interested in models that predict tennis matches, this article is a good start (Warning: Stats geeks only)
Madison Keys Recent Matches Played
Before:
| OPPONENT | Score | H2H | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 |
Stats
Anna Kalinskaya
Player
Madison Keys
76%
(
44 of
58)
1st Serve %
68%
(
40 of
59)
0
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
0
68%
(
30 of
44)
1st Serve Won
48%
(
19 of
40)
64%
(
9 of
14)
2nd Serve Won
63%
(
12 of
19)
80%
(
4 of
5)
Break Points Won
13%
(
1 of
8)
33%
(
19 of
58)
Rtn Points Won
47%
(
28 of
59)
67
Total Points Won
50
|
6-2 6-4 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Madison Keys
Player
Caroline Dolehide
66%
(
48 of
73)
1st Serve %
61%
(
47 of
77)
2
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
2
77%
(
37 of
48)
1st Serve Won
62%
(
29 of
47)
48%
(
12 of
25)
2nd Serve Won
57%
(
17 of
30)
25%
(
2 of
8)
Break Points Won
33%
(
1 of
3)
33%
(
24 of
73)
Rtn Points Won
40%
(
31 of
77)
80
Total Points Won
70
|
6-3 7-6(4) | H2H | ||
| R3 |
Stats
Alexandra Eala
Player
Madison Keys
66%
(
41 of
62)
1st Serve %
62%
(
41 of
66)
1
Aces
5
1
Double Faults
4
59%
(
24 of
41)
1st Serve Won
46%
(
19 of
41)
52%
(
11 of
21)
2nd Serve Won
36%
(
9 of
25)
46%
(
6 of
13)
Break Points Won
60%
(
3 of
5)
44%
(
27 of
62)
Rtn Points Won
58%
(
38 of
66)
73
Total Points Won
55
|
6-4 6-2 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Madison Keys
Player
Elina Avanesyan
69%
(
41 of
59)
1st Serve %
59%
(
41 of
69)
2
Aces
0
3
Double Faults
3
51%
(
21 of
41)
1st Serve Won
41%
(
17 of
41)
56%
(
10 of
18)
2nd Serve Won
39%
(
11 of
28)
50%
(
7 of
14)
Break Points Won
80%
(
4 of
5)
47%
(
28 of
59)
Rtn Points Won
59%
(
41 of
69)
72
Total Points Won
56
|
6-3 6-3 | H2H | ||
| SF |
Stats
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Madison Keys
70%
(
28 of
40)
1st Serve %
75%
(
30 of
40)
0
Aces
2
1
Double Faults
2
71%
(
20 of
28)
1st Serve Won
40%
(
12 of
30)
75%
(
9 of
12)
2nd Serve Won
40%
(
4 of
10)
83%
(
5 of
6)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
1)
28%
(
11 of
40)
Rtn Points Won
60%
(
24 of
40)
53
Total Points Won
27
|
6-0 6-1 | H2H | ||
| QF |
Stats
Madison Keys
Player
Belinda Bencic
63%
(
30 of
48)
1st Serve %
60%
(
31 of
52)
2
Aces
0
2
Double Faults
4
73%
(
22 of
30)
1st Serve Won
45%
(
14 of
31)
39%
(
7 of
18)
2nd Serve Won
29%
(
6 of
21)
55%
(
6 of
11)
Break Points Won
33%
(
1 of
3)
40%
(
19 of
48)
Rtn Points Won
62%
(
32 of
52)
61
Total Points Won
39
|
6-1 6-1 | H2H | ||
| R4 |
Stats
Madison Keys
Player
Donna Vekic
66%
(
60 of
91)
1st Serve %
59%
(
65 of
110)
7
Aces
2
4
Double Faults
5
68%
(
41 of
60)
1st Serve Won
72%
(
47 of
65)
58%
(
18 of
31)
2nd Serve Won
40%
(
18 of
45)
33%
(
4 of
12)
Break Points Won
60%
(
3 of
5)
35%
(
32 of
91)
Rtn Points Won
41%
(
45 of
110)
104
Total Points Won
97
|
4-6 7-6(7) 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R3 |
Stats
Madison Keys
Player
Elise Mertens
59%
(
76 of
128)
1st Serve %
54%
(
66 of
123)
5
Aces
1
12
Double Faults
9
75%
(
57 of
76)
1st Serve Won
70%
(
46 of
66)
33%
(
17 of
52)
2nd Serve Won
40%
(
23 of
57)
38%
(
6 of
16)
Break Points Won
20%
(
3 of
15)
42%
(
54 of
128)
Rtn Points Won
44%
(
54 of
123)
128
Total Points Won
123
|
6-2 6-7(8) 6-4 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Madison Keys
Player
Anastasia Potapova
50%
(
22 of
44)
1st Serve %
50%
(
27 of
54)
0
Aces
0
4
Double Faults
1
77%
(
17 of
22)
1st Serve Won
37%
(
10 of
27)
64%
(
14 of
22)
2nd Serve Won
44%
(
12 of
27)
67%
(
6 of
9)
Break Points Won
17%
(
1 of
6)
30%
(
13 of
44)
Rtn Points Won
59%
(
32 of
54)
63
Total Points Won
35
|
6-3 6-0 | H2H | ||
| F |
Stats
Madison Keys
Player
Aryna Sabalenka
67%
(
58 of
87)
1st Serve %
70%
(
67 of
96)
6
Aces
3
0
Double Faults
5
69%
(
40 of
58)
1st Serve Won
60%
(
40 of
67)
48%
(
14 of
29)
2nd Serve Won
62%
(
18 of
29)
44%
(
4 of
9)
Break Points Won
38%
(
3 of
8)
38%
(
33 of
87)
Rtn Points Won
40%
(
38 of
96)
92
Total Points Won
91
|
6-3 2-6 7-5 | H2H | ||
view more
Aryna Sabalenka Recent Matches Played
Before:
| OPPONENT | Score | H2H | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F |
Stats
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Jessica Pegula
66%
(
43 of
65)
1st Serve %
73%
(
47 of
64)
3
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
3
58%
(
25 of
43)
1st Serve Won
49%
(
23 of
47)
55%
(
12 of
22)
2nd Serve Won
24%
(
4 of
17)
44%
(
7 of
16)
Break Points Won
36%
(
4 of
11)
43%
(
28 of
65)
Rtn Points Won
58%
(
37 of
64)
74
Total Points Won
55
|
7-5 6-2 | H2H | ||
| SF |
Stats
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Jasmine Paolini
78%
(
40 of
51)
1st Serve %
59%
(
35 of
59)
6
Aces
3
2
Double Faults
1
78%
(
31 of
40)
1st Serve Won
60%
(
21 of
35)
45%
(
5 of
11)
2nd Serve Won
33%
(
8 of
24)
80%
(
4 of
5)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
4)
29%
(
15 of
51)
Rtn Points Won
51%
(
30 of
59)
66
Total Points Won
44
|
6-2 6-2 | H2H | ||
| QF |
Stats
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Qinwen Zheng
68%
(
40 of
59)
1st Serve %
47%
(
31 of
66)
1
Aces
3
0
Double Faults
4
53%
(
21 of
40)
1st Serve Won
65%
(
20 of
31)
63%
(
12 of
19)
2nd Serve Won
17%
(
6 of
35)
58%
(
7 of
12)
Break Points Won
36%
(
4 of
11)
44%
(
26 of
59)
Rtn Points Won
61%
(
40 of
66)
73
Total Points Won
52
|
6-2 7-5 | H2H | ||
| R4 |
Stats
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Danielle Rose Collins
70%
(
37 of
53)
1st Serve %
68%
(
42 of
62)
7
Aces
1
0
Double Faults
2
76%
(
28 of
37)
1st Serve Won
57%
(
24 of
42)
56%
(
9 of
16)
2nd Serve Won
55%
(
11 of
20)
33%
(
3 of
9)
Break Points Won
100%
(
1 of
1)
30%
(
16 of
53)
Rtn Points Won
44%
(
27 of
62)
64
Total Points Won
51
|
6-4 6-4 | H2H | ||
| R3 |
Stats
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Elena Gabriela Ruse
61%
(
17 of
28)
1st Serve %
62%
(
13 of
21)
3
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
1
71%
(
12 of
17)
1st Serve Won
38%
(
5 of
13)
64%
(
7 of
11)
2nd Serve Won
38%
(
3 of
8)
67%
(
2 of
3)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
3)
32%
(
9 of
28)
Rtn Points Won
62%
(
13 of
21)
32
Total Points Won
17
|
6-1 ret. | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Viktoriya Tomova
59%
(
24 of
41)
1st Serve %
65%
(
34 of
52)
1
Aces
2
0
Double Faults
7
67%
(
16 of
24)
1st Serve Won
44%
(
15 of
34)
71%
(
12 of
17)
2nd Serve Won
28%
(
5 of
18)
55%
(
6 of
11)
Break Points Won
50%
(
2 of
4)
32%
(
13 of
41)
Rtn Points Won
62%
(
32 of
52)
60
Total Points Won
33
|
6-3 6-0 | H2H | ||
| F |
Stats
Mirra Andreeva
Player
Aryna Sabalenka
68%
(
56 of
82)
1st Serve %
60%
(
55 of
92)
6
Aces
1
2
Double Faults
1
70%
(
39 of
56)
1st Serve Won
64%
(
35 of
55)
46%
(
12 of
26)
2nd Serve Won
46%
(
17 of
37)
31%
(
4 of
13)
Break Points Won
50%
(
3 of
6)
38%
(
31 of
82)
Rtn Points Won
43%
(
40 of
92)
91
Total Points Won
83
|
2-6 6-4 6-3 | H2H | ||
| SF |
Stats
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Madison Keys
70%
(
28 of
40)
1st Serve %
75%
(
30 of
40)
0
Aces
2
1
Double Faults
2
71%
(
20 of
28)
1st Serve Won
40%
(
12 of
30)
75%
(
9 of
12)
2nd Serve Won
40%
(
4 of
10)
83%
(
5 of
6)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
1)
28%
(
11 of
40)
Rtn Points Won
60%
(
24 of
40)
53
Total Points Won
27
|
6-0 6-1 | H2H | ||
| QF |
Stats
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Liudmila Samsonova
69%
(
34 of
49)
1st Serve %
63%
(
38 of
60)
1
Aces
0
0
Double Faults
3
71%
(
24 of
34)
1st Serve Won
45%
(
17 of
38)
47%
(
7 of
15)
2nd Serve Won
45%
(
10 of
22)
63%
(
5 of
8)
Break Points Won
100%
(
2 of
2)
37%
(
18 of
49)
Rtn Points Won
55%
(
33 of
60)
64
Total Points Won
45
|
6-2 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R4 |
Stats
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Sonay Kartal
67%
(
31 of
46)
1st Serve %
70%
(
37 of
53)
2
Aces
0
1
Double Faults
2
74%
(
23 of
31)
1st Serve Won
46%
(
17 of
37)
47%
(
7 of
15)
2nd Serve Won
38%
(
6 of
16)
63%
(
5 of
8)
Break Points Won
50%
(
1 of
2)
35%
(
16 of
46)
Rtn Points Won
57%
(
30 of
53)
60
Total Points Won
39
|
6-1 6-2 | H2H | ||
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Where To Watch Keys vs Sabalenka?
When the match starts we will have live scores and stats on this page. For live streaming at TV channels of this match, see our ATP and WTA worldwide viewing pages. Free trial live streaming of Keys Vs Sabalenka is now available here.
Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents
| Stats | ||
|---|---|---|
| 64% (404/223) | Win/Loss | 70% (447/193) |
| 62% (895/539) | Sets Win/Loss | 66% (992/513) |
| 55% (7349/6079) | Games Win/Loss | 56% (7866/6169) |
| 0.42 | Aces Per Game | 0.39 |
| 2783 | Aces Total | 2640 |
| 0.2 | Double Faults Per Game | 0.4 |
| 1305 | Total Double Faults | 2735 |
| 1:18:14 | Average Match Time | 1:29:55 |
| 331.41 | Average Opponent Rank | 268.62 |
| 63% (24104/38308) | 1st Serve % | 60% (25708/42556) |
| 69% (16546/24104) | 1st Serve Win % | 69% (17710/25708) |
| 48% (6845/14187) | 2nd Serve Win % | 47% (7938/16837) |
| 44% (2015/4580) | Break Points Won % (Total) | 47% (2404/5123) |
| 43% (17146/39446) | Return Points Win % | 45% (19020/42300) |
| 65% (400/615) | Best of 3 Sets Win % | 70% (444/636) |
| 25% (1/4) | Best of 5 Sets Win % | 100% (1/1) |
| 58% (96/166) | Tiebreaks Win % (Total) | 57% (93/162) |
| 53% (98/185) | Deciding Set Win % | 56% (127/228) |
| 88% (409/358) | 1st Set Won, Won Match | 89% (427/379) |
| 12% (409/50) | 1st Set Won, Lost Match | 11% (427/47) |
| 21% (218/45) | 1st Set Lost, Won Match | 31% (213/67) |
Potential H2H Matches This Week For Aryna Sabalenka
View full predicted draw for Sabalenka in Stuttgart
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